MLB betting line



MLB betting line




August 30th MLB news ... In order to hit a home run during the baseball season, the baseball bettor needs to stay a top all of the latest trends, MLB betting line and statistics. This site will provide all of that information and much more.
Welcome to mlbettingline.com, the place that provides the bettor with everything he needs to successfully handicap a baseball game.

In order to hit a home run during the baseball season, the baseball bettor needs to stay a top all of the latest trends, MLB betting line and statistics. This site will provide all of that information and much more.

MLB News

2015 Kentucky Derby Odds
2015-04-15

Kentucky Derby week is one of the most thrilling times of the year. This race is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" for its approximate time length.



Check 2015 KY Derby Schedule May 1 and 24 at Sportsbook.com



Odds to Win 2015 Kentucky Derby


March Madness Bracket
2015-02-15

$100K MARCH MADNESS BRACKET CONTEST

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Here’s a breakdown of the prizes:
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2nd Place $12,500
3rd Place $7,500
4th Place $3,500
5th Place $1,500
6th to 1,005th $5 Free Bet


Visit Sportsbook.ag for an early buy-in and to make your picks


MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
2010-07-14

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.

So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.

<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>

<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>2000: </b>224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units

<b>2001: </b>284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units

<b>2002: </b>251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units

<b>2003: </b>265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units

<b>2004: </b>283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units

<b>2005: </b>318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units

<b>2006: </b>301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units

<b>2007: </b>306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units

<b>2008: </b>308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units

<b>2009: </b>270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units

<b>2010: </b>134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

Average Road Underdog Line: -158

Average Return on Investment = 0.9%

As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.

<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>

<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>2000: </b>127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units

<b>2001: </b>157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units

<b>2002: </b>156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units

<b>2003: </b>171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units

<b>2004: </b>150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units

<b>2005: </b>133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units

<b>2006: </b>162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units

<b>2007: </b>152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units

<b>2008: </b>147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units

<b>2009: </b>143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units

<b>2010: </b>74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

Average Home Underdog Line: +129

Average Return on Investment = 2.1%

The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.

<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>

<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>-300 or higher: </b>24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units

<b>-250 to -299: </b>58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units

<b>-220 to -249: </b>143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units

<b>-190 to -219: </b>236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units

<b>-170 to -189: </b>305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units

<b>-150 to -169: </b>529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units

<b>-130 to -149: </b>786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units

<b>-116 to -129: </b>435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units

<b>-106 to -115: </b>428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>

<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>+105 to -104: </b>440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units

<b>+106 to +120: </b>456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units

<b>+121 to +154: </b>475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units

<b>+155 to +199: </b>167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units

<b>+200 or higher: </b>34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.

<b>Summary</b>

The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.


MLB: Los Angeles tries to cool down hot-lanta
2010-06-03

Over the past two weeks, the Atlanta Braves have vaulted from worst to first in the NL East. The next two weeks could determine if they have what it takes to stay there. The surging Braves look to win nine straight games for the first time in a decade when they open a season-high 11-game trip Thursday night against a Los Angeles Dodgers team seeking its fifth consecutive victory. Sportsbook.com offers Los Angeles as the -125 favorite for Thursday.
Atlanta’s chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2005 weren’t looking good as a nine-game losing streak from April 21-29 dropped the club a season-worst six games below .500. The Braves (31-22, +5.4) were still 6 1/2 games back of first-place Philadelphia on May 17, but they’ve gone a Major League-best 13-2 to open up a 2 1/2-game division lead.
Atlanta finished a three-game sweep of the defending NL champion Phillies on Wednesday with a 2-1 win. The Braves, who have outscored their opponents 51-21 during the eight-game winning streak, haven’t won nine consecutive games since reeling off a franchise-best 15 straight from April 16-May 2, 2000. They will begin this road trip sporting a 18-5 mark when playing with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in the last game.
No team has had both a winning and losing streak of at least nine games in a single season since Cleveland in 2008, which had runs of 10 games.
It would certainly be a surprise if Atlanta can continue its winning ways over this next stretch. After this four-game series at Dodger Stadium, the Braves have four in Arizona followed by a three-game series at AL Central-leading Minnesota. Under Bobby Cox, Atlanta is only 26-32 after allowing three runs or less in five straight contests and the road excursion returns home for three against Tampa Bay, owner of baseball’s best record.
The Dodgers (31-22, +3.2) enter this series having won three straight games in their final at-bat. Garret Anderson came up with the big hit in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Arizona, driving in Matt Kemp with a two-out single in the 14th inning. Anderson helped his team move to 11-5 in one run games this season.
Los Angeles has won four straight despite Andre Ethier’s struggles at the plate. Ethier is 1 for 14 in three games since coming off the disabled list after missing the previous 15 because of a broken right pinky finger. He hit .367 (11 for 30) with three homers, two doubles and nine RBIs in seven games against Atlanta last season, but the Dodgers lost four.
Hiroki Kuroda (5-3, 3.55 ERA, 1.358 WHIP) takes the ball for Los Angeles looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season. After going 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA in his first five May starts, Kuroda was tagged for seven runs - five earned - and 10 hits in a season-low four innings of Saturday’s 11-3 loss at Colorado.
Kuroda is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Braves, and in his only outing against them at Dodger Stadium, the right-hander threw a one-hitter, winning 3-0 on July 7, 2008 and L.A. is 7-1 when he is the series Game 1 starter.
Atlanta counters with Kris Medlen (2-1, 2.85, 1.317), who is 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts since joining the rotation. Against Pittsburgh on Saturday, Medlen gave up three runs and nine hits in six innings of a 6-3 win. This will be the right-hander’s first career start against the Dodgers after going 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four relief outings against them last season.
Sportsbook.com has the Dodgers as -127 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Los Angeles is 12-2 after three consecutive games versus a NL West clubs this season and 14-4 UNDER after a contest where the bullpen threw six or more innings. Atlanta has won their last five against teams with a positive record; however is 2-9 as road underdog. The Braves are 13-3 OVER in away encounters after allowing four runs or less in five straight games since 2008.
The First pitch is set for 10:10 Eastern on MLB-TV and can also be viewed in local markets. The StatFox Power Line shows L.A. Dodgers -111, indicating a slight overpricing.